The Second City derby between Aston Villa and Birmingham City is one of English football’s most intense rivalries, and this weekend’s clash promises to deliver another thrilling chapter. As both teams prepare to face off, Mcw brings you an in-depth tactical analysis, key player insights, and historical context to set the stage for this highly anticipated showdown.
Dean Smith’s Tactical Revolution at Aston Villa
Dean Smith, a lifelong Villa fan, has begun implementing his philosophy since taking over last month. Known for his attractive, possession-based style at Brentford, Smith is already making waves at Villa Park.
Aston Villa’s Passing Transformation Under Smith
The numbers reveal a dramatic shift in Villa‘s approach:
| Statistic | Pre-Smith Rank | Post-Smith Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Passes per game | 11th | 4th |
| Passing accuracy | 7th | 2nd |
| Chances created | =6th | 3rd |
| Short pass percentage | 9th | 3rd |
This stylistic evolution has yielded immediate offensive rewards. Only Leeds and Swansea have created more chances in recent matches, while Villa’s 21-shot display at Derby before the international break was the most any visitor has managed at Pride Park this season.
Birmingham’s Aerial Threat: The Jutkiewicz Factor
Garry Monk’s Birmingham have adopted a contrasting approach, utilizing long balls (34% of their passes) more than any Championship side except Rotherham. This strategy has unlocked the potential of target man Lukas Jutkiewicz:
- 9 league goals (nearly double last season’s tally)
- 209 aerial duels won (league leader)
- 4 headed goals (most in Championship)
- 17 headed shots (3rd highest)
The 6’1″ striker forms a formidable partnership with Che Adams, who’s fresh off a hat-trick against Hull. Together, they’ve scored 17 goals – more than five entire Championship teams this season.
Defensive Concerns for Villa
Villa face potential problems at center-back with James Chester’s fitness in doubt. Should he miss out, Mile Jedinak would likely deputize – the Australian international has won 75% of his aerial duels this season (4th best in the league), which could prove crucial against Birmingham’s physical approach.
Monk’s Managerial Mastery
Garry Monk has transformed Birmingham’s fortunes since their September win at Leeds. In the subsequent nine matches:
| Team | Points | GD |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich | 22 | +9 |
| Birmingham | 18 | +5 |
| Sheff Utd | 17 | +5 |
Monk also boasts an impressive personal record against Villa – unbeaten in eight meetings as a manager with six victories. However, Villa hold the historical edge in league derbies, unbeaten in the last 12 meetings dating back to March 2005.
Key Matchup to Watch
The battle between Birmingham’s aerial dominance and Villa’s new possession game will likely decide this derby. Can Smith’s refined passing game overcome Monk’s physical approach? Or will Birmingham’s set-piece prowess and direct style prove decisive?
As Mcw analysis shows, this Second City derby presents a fascinating clash of philosophies. With local pride at stake and both teams in decent form, Sunday’s encounter promises to be a memorable addition to this historic rivalry.
